I have been enthralled by a book called The Black Swan by Teleb. The premise of the book is that a black swan is not real, and like a black swan our market predictions only predict those events that fall within the norm. The trouble is that the events that bring change, both positive and negative fall outside this range and are in fact outliers. Another symptom of the black swan is that "experts" make up answers after the fact. The attached article about Fannie Mae is such an example.http://www.nytimes.com/index.html?vendor=msnhttp://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/05/business/05fannie.html?hp
